All Jihadist militias whether in Syria or Lebanon will need to be disarmed by military means as the Jihadists are unlikely to voluntarily disarm and this very necessity applies entirely irrespective of denomination.
Modern Lebanon (French Grand Liban) was founded with the intention of becoming a haven for oppressed Middle Eastern Christians just as the Balfour Declaration was issued with the intent of creating an indigenous haven for the world’s oppressed Jews. France however created a confessional electoral system for Lebanon with the intention of France becoming able to control Lebanese politics by means of divide and rule. Lebanon had a 86% Christian majority in 1926 but due to the legally sectarian nature of its electoral system was Lebanon never opened for immigration of persecuted and oppressed ethnic Christians from elsewhere in the Middle East. The boundaries of Grand Liban were drawn in such a way so as to include territorially significant Sunni regions and Shia regions which in the context of Grand Liban were initially relatively demographically insignificant.
The Lebanese Civil War ended with the 1989 Taif Agreement whereby Christian Lebanese leaders effectively capitulated and turned Lebanon into a joint Christian-Muslim state. The Lebanese Civil War was however politically won by Ba’athist Syria and Khomeinist Iran which turned the country into their joint protectorate. Hezbollah which is part of the command structure of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) refused to disarm in complete contravention of the Taif Agreement using the non-disarmament of the Israeli-allied South Lebanese Army (SLA) as an excuse for not abiding by the peace agreement to which Hezbollah itself committed itself to. Hezbollah has however refused to disarm even after the SLA was disbanded in the year 2000 and Hezbollah subsequently increasingly become a state within the state whereby Hezbollah effectively became the proprietor of the Lebanese state in retaining the last word about virtually every important decision in the country.
Most Lebanese leaders whether officially “pro-Syrian” or “Anti-Syrian” agree that this is an untenable situation and that Hezbollah’s armed presence is a political and military cancer in the country. The Lebanese political system has for many years been fractured between the Israeli-influenced camp and the Syrian-controlled camp and so the regional rivalry between Israel and Syria during the Lebanese Civil War continued with Syria’s proxies and Israel’s friends being pitted against each other inside the Lebanese political system.
The Syrian Civil War has seen a similar power struggle within the predominantly Alawite Syrian political elite and the pro-Israeli factions of the Alawite-led Syrian administration have already mostly prevailed although the power struggle still goes on. Israel and Syria have increasingly developed unofficial diplomatic relations since the 1990s (although there were certainly back door diplomatic channels prior to that) and unoffical diplomatic ties have grown increasingly closer throughout the Syrian Civil War. Learning that the Alawites are Crypto-Jews and remain fully and completely halakhically Jewish has been a particularly important factor in increasingly swaying ethnically Alawite leaders of Syria from alignment with Tehran to alignment with Jerusalem. Non-Israeli Alawites importantly have the same immigration rights as non-Israeli rabbinic Jews under Israeli law to immigrate to Israel and automatically receive Israeli citizenship upon immigration to Israel in virtue of the fact that Alawites (as Alevis, Druze, Yarsanis and Yezidis) always having been fully recognized by senior poskim (rabbinic decisors) as completely halakhically Jewish indeed.
Damascus understands that Iran’s regime is a mere shell of religious oppression and religious hypocrisy as Iranians have never been more secular than today. Israel in contrast as the sole regional great power has the extensive responsibility to act in good faith to promote the best interest of every people in the region and so moral clarity is precisely essential indeed. Secular factions of the Iranian regime have increasingly aligned with Israel although Islamist elements still remain influential within the regime which has a complicated power structure, including extensive political influence from the Iranian intelligence establishment.
Today’s Lebanese leaders are overwhelmingly pro-Israel and the political divide between the Israeli-influenced camp and the Syrian-controlled camp inside the Lebanese political system has really lost all actual relevance with the end of the Israeli-Syrian regional rivalry. However, the fear of Hezbollah is pervasive among Lebanese political leaders of all denominations. Hezbollah is a terrorist and in other ways criminal organization as partly funded through international drug trafficking and its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has turned into yet another kleptocratic munafeq (Arabic for outwardly religious hypocrite) whose main interest now is diverting Hezbollah’s funds into his own personal purse. Support for Hezbollah among Lebanon’s ethnic Shias has increasingly declined during the course of the Syrian Civil War although it is actually logical that Lebanese Shias fight for Syrian Alawites considering that Lebanese Shias are Crypto-Alawites as most Lebanese Muslim clans whether Sunni or Shia are indeed descended from forcibly Islamized Alawites. Alawism was originally a branch of Zoroastrianism which itself originally emerged within Median Judaism as founded by Assyrian-deported exiles of the Northern Kingdom of Israel.
The partition of Lebanon is actually a no-brainer in terms of simply executing a diplomatically agreed exchange of territories between Lebanon and Syria whereby Syria annexes Muslim regions of Lebanon – and Lebanon reversely annexes Christian regions of Syria in Lebanon thus becoming Aram and Syria becoming Alawistan as based on local communal reversions to Alawite Judaism. There is now agreement within the Syrian administration that this is the way forward and Lebanese political leaders do agree. A Druze state will also need to be established from the Druze Mountain region to the Mediterranean Sea. Beirut importantly seeks peace and partnership on an equal footing with both Jerusalem and Damascus. The tiny Christian region on the Lebanese border with Israel will no doubt prefer to become part of Israel rather than becoming part of Alawistan.
As of writing has the feminist army of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) entered Raqqa, capital city of the Islamic State Caliphate and the SDF has already set its eyes on subsequently eliminating the Jihadist militias of northwest Syria once the SDF has liberated the Euphrates Valley region of eastern Syria. It is clear in this context that Hezbollah too will need to be eliminated and this also needs to be done by military means. If Hezbollah does not voluntarily disarm will Israel have no other realistic choice than to disarm Hezbollah by military means. The best scenario for doing this is for Maronite forces to do the job on the ground as extensively logistically supported by overwhelming Israeli airpower. Israel and America therefore need to empower Lebanon’s Maronites and help them train extremely advanced elite special forces for the purpose of destroying Iran’s mercenaries in the country. Training Maronite special forces in Lebanon and abroad is crucially also both an American interest and an Israeli interest indeed in terms of ending Jihadism and helping bring freedom and peace to the region.
America and Israel therefore need to prepare the ground for Operation Freedom for Lebanon which needs to be carried out without any visible presence of Israeli Jewish boots on the ground in Lebanon. There will also need to be extensive trilateral political coordination between Beirut, Damascus and Jerusalem in order to make sure that the everything works according to plan in both tactical and strategic terms. Syria will not fight Lebanese Shias, yet Israel will have no choice but to disarm Hezbollah by military means unless Hezbollah agrees to disarm once the Syrian Civil War ends as it will with the SDF eliminating Jihadism in eastern and northern Syria.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah is one of the most able military forces in the world, yet the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has prepared for many years for this seemingly unavoidable task. All Jihadist militias in Syria and Lebanon will need to be destroyed and irrespectively so of denomination as the terrorist phenomenon of Jihadism is entirely intolerable as is indeed the totalitarian phenomenon of Islamism generally.
The military elimination of both the Islamic State Caliphate and other Jihadist militias in Syria by the SDF as extensively supported by America and Israel heralds the diplomatic partition of Syria and Lebanon and it is therefore essential that Lebanese political leaders unify and embrace the democratic future in a Free Aram without being disempowered by fears of IRGC mercenaries in the country. Three Aramean states will need to be established, namely Aram, Alawistan (the historically Alawite region in parts of Syria, Lebanon and Turkey) and Ezidxan (Yezidistan in the Euphrates Valley region of Syria and Iraq) and the three Aramean states should importantly become merged in the future if their peoples so wish. Reversion to both the Aramaic language and to Median Judaism (Alawite Judaism and Yezidi Judaism) are essential indeed for the future of the region and it is vital to understand that freedom is not free as freedom typically carries a heavy pricetag indeed. Eliminating Jihadism in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon is not really a matter of choice but rather one of ethical obligation to the defense and proliferation of open society and liberal democracy in the region and worldwide.
Lebanese leaders need to muster political courage in embracing the future and not letting themselves become tyrannized by their own fears. Lebanese leaders irrespective of denomination or regional alignment with Jerusalem or Damascus need to unite and closely coordinate in order to help build a better future for Aram, Alawistan and Israel. As Theodor Herzl, the founder of democratic Zionism famously put it, “if you will it is it no dream”.